COLLEGE SPORTS

March Madness predictions 4.0: Projecting NCAA Tournament bracket for Big Ten basketball teams

Craig Meyer
USA TODAY NETWORK

In fewer than two full weeks, the day that stands as a finish line for much of men’s college basketball will finally arrive and, at last, a bracket will be revealed.

For now, guesses at what that 68-team concoction will look like continue.

How will the Big Ten factor into that?

Heading into the final week of the regular season, the conference has six teams in the field, though only half of those are No. 8 seeds or better. Purdue, the No. 3 team in the latest USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, remains a No. 1 seed and is the only Big Ten squad among the top three seed lines.

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In the next two weeks, that picture can change drastically, with teams like Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern and Nebraska potentially moving up a seed line or two and teams like Iowa making a late push for inclusion into the field.

Where do things stand now, with several big games looming in the next two weeks? Here’s a look at the projected bracket and where Big Ten teams fit in that larger picture:

2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Note: These projections do not take into account games that took place on Monday, March 4.

** Participating in a play-in game

Last four in

  • Virginia
  • Wake Forest
  • Colorado
  • Villanova

First four out

  • Seton Hall
  • Providence
  • St. John’s
  • Pitt

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No. 1 seeds

  • Houston (26-3, 13-3 Big 12): NET No. 1 | KenPom No. 1
  • UConn (26-3, 16-2 Big East): NET No. 3 | KenPom No. 2
  • Purdue (26-3, 15-3 Big Ten): NET No. 2 | KenPom No. 3
  • Arizona (23-6, 14-4 Pac-12): NET No. 4 | KenPom No. 4

The Boilermakers keep rolling along on the tracks, having clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title with their win last Saturday against Michigan State. At this point, it would take something cataclysmic, like two losses to end the regular-season and losing its first game of the Big Ten tournament, for Purdue to fall off the No. 1 seed line. Even that might not do it.

No. 2 seeds

  • Tennessee (23-6, 13-3 SEC): NET No. 5 | KenPom No. 5
  • North Carolina (23-6, 15-3 ACC): NET No. 9 | KenPom No. 9
  • Iowa State (23-6, 12-4 Big 12): NET No. 8 | KenPom No. 10
  • Marquette (22-7, 13-5 Big East): NET No. 14 | KenPom No. 13

No. 3 seeds

  • Duke (23-6, 14-4 ACC): NET No. 10 | KenPom No. 7
  • Kansas (21-8, 9-7 Big 12): NET No. 18 | KenPom No. 17
  • Alabama (20-9, 12-4 SEC): NET No. 7 | KenPom No. 8
  • Creighton (22-8, 13-6 Big East): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 11

No. 4 seeds

  • Auburn (22-7, 11-5 SEC): NET No. 6 | KenPom No. 6
  • Illinois (22-7, 13-5 Big Ten): NET No. 15 | KenPom No. 12
  • Baylor (21-8, 10-6 Big 12): NET No. 13 | KenPom No. 14
  • Kentucky (21-8, 11-5 SEC): NET No. 20 | KenPom No. 18

The Fighting Illini remain on the No. 4 seed line, but this week, it has the potential to make a serious leap. Illinois hosts Purdue on Tuesday in a matchup of the Big Ten’s top two teams and could follow that up with a road win against an Iowa team suddenly on the bubble. Victories there and a run to the Big Ten championship game could put Brad Underwood’s team under serious consideration for a No. 2 seed.

No. 5 seeds

  • San Diego State (22-7, 11-5 Mountain West): NET No. 19 | KenPom No. 19
  • BYU (21-8, 9-7 Big 12): NET No. 12 | KenPom No. 16
  • South Carolina (24-5, 12-4 SEC): NET No. 47 | KenPom No. 43
  • Washington State (23-7, 14-5 Pac-12): NET No. 37 | KenPom No. 39

No. 6 seeds

  • Saint Mary’s (24-7, 15-1 West Coast): NET No. 17 | KenPom No. 22
  • Wisconsin (18-11, 10-8 Big Ten): NET No. 23 | KenPom No. 23
  • Dayton (22-6, 12-4 Atlantic 10): NET No. 21| KenPom: 27
  • Clemson (20-9, 10-8 ACC): NET No. 25 | KenPom No. 25

Just when it looked as though the Badgers had recovered, they stumbled again. A home loss to Illinois is understandable, but a loss on the road against a struggling Indiana team that had lost four in a row is much more concerning. Wisconsin isn’t in danger of missing the tournament and will likely only slide so far even if it continues dropping games, but it is 2-7 since the start of February.

No. 7 seeds

  • Utah State (24-5, 12-4 Mountain West): NET No. 36 | KenPom: 42
  • Texas Tech (20-9, 9-7 Big 12): NET No. 42 | KenPom No. 33
  • Boise State (21-8, 12-4 Mountain West): NET No. 24 | KenPom No. 34
  • Florida (20-9, 10-6 SEC): NET No. 33 | KenPom No. 31

No. 8 seeds

  • Colorado State (21-9, 9-8 Mountain West): NET No. 34 | KenPom No. 36
  • TCU (19-10, 8-8 Big 12): NET No. 38 | KenPom No. 32
  • Florida Atlantic (22-7, 12-4 American Athletic): NET No. 35 | KenPom No. 40
  • Nevada (24-6, 11-5 Mountain West): NET No. 40 | KenPom No. 41

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No. 9 seeds

  • Michigan State (17-12, 9-9 Big Ten): NET No. 22 | KenPom No. 20
  • Mississippi State (19-10, 8-8 SEC): NET No. 32 | KenPom No. 30
  • Texas (19-10, 8-8 Big 12): NET No. 27 | KenPom: No. 26
  • Oklahoma (19-10, 7-9 Big 12): NET No. 41 | KenPom No. 37

The Spartans dropped their lone game of last week, falling on the road to Purdue 80-74. The result was far from discouraging, with Michigan State hanging tight for much of the game with the nation’s No. 3 team, but it was its third loss in a row. It came immediately after a 10-game stretch in which the Spartans went 8-2. Tom Izzo’s squad isn’t on the bubble or particularly close to it, but it could certainly use a strong finish this week with winnable games against Northwestern and at Indiana.

No. 10 seeds

  • Northwestern (20-9, 11-7 Big Ten): NET No. 53 | KenPom No. 46
  • New Mexico (21-8, 9-7 Mountain West): NET No. 28 | KenPom No. 38
  • Gonzaga (24-6, 14-2 West Coast Conference): NET No. 16 | KenPom No. 15
  • Nebraska (21-9, 11-8 Big Ten): NET No. 43 | KenPom No. 34

The Wildcats went 1-1 last week, winning in a tough road environment against Maryland before falling at home to Iowa, which has won four of its past five games and moved on to the bubble (the Hawkeyes are in the next four out in this projection). It was only the second home loss in 16 games this season for Northwestern.

The Cornhuskers saw their four-game win streak snapped to a suddenly revitalized Ohio State team that is 4-1 since coach Chris Holtmann was fired on Valentine’s Day. They recovered nicely last Sunday, though, to beat Rutgers by 11 and improve their home record to 18-1. Avoiding a loss on Sunday at last-place Michigan will be key as Nebraska inches closer to its first NCAA Tournament berth in a decade.

No. 11 seeds

  • Indiana State (26-5, 17-3 Missouri Valley): NET No. 29 | KenPom No. 45
  • Princeton (23-3, 11-2 Ivy): NET No. 51 | KenPom No. 64
  • Virginia (21-9, 12-7 ACC)**: NET No. 49 | KenPom No. 69
  • Wake Forest (18-11, 10-8 ACC)**: NET No. 31, KenPom No. 21
  • Colorado (20-9, 11-7 Pac-12)**: NET No. 30 | KenPom No. 29
  • Villanova (17-12, 10-8 Big East)**: NET No. 26 | KenPom No. 24

No. 12 seeds

  • Grand Canyon (26-4, 16-3 Western Athletic): NET No. 55 | KenPom No. 57
  • McNeese (26-3, 15-1 Southland): NET No. 56 | KenPom No. 66
  • South Florida (22-5, 15-1 American Athletic): NET No. 79 | KenPom No. 89
  • Richmond (22-7, 14-2 Atlantic 10): NET No. 70 | KenPom No. 77

No. 13 seeds

  • Appalachian State (26-5, 16-2 Sun Belt): NET No. 69 | KenPom No. 73
  • Samford (26-5, 15-3 Southern): NET No. 81 | KenPom No. 86
  • UC Irvine (22-8, 15-3 Big West): NET No. 76 | KenPom No. 74
  • Charleston (24-7, 15-3 Colonial Athletic): NET No. 102 | KenPom No. 104

No. 14 seeds

  • Akron (21-8, 13-3 Mid-American): NET No. 102 | KenPom No. 101
  • Vermont (24-6, 14-1 America East): NET No. 97 | KenPom No. 97
  • High Point (24-7, 13-3 Big South): NET No. 108 | KenPom No. 112
  • Oakland (20-11, 15-5 Horizon): NET No. 138 | KenPom No. 141

No. 15 seeds

  • Colgate (22-9, 16-2 Patriot): NET No. 131 | KenPom No. 143
  • Eastern Washington (20-10, 14-3 Big Sky): NET No. 132 | KenPom No. 137
  • South Dakota State (19-12, 12-4 Summit): NET No. 152 | KenPom No. 149
  • Sam Houston State (18-11, 11-3 Conference USA): NET No. 161 | KenPom No. 154

No. 16 seeds

  • Quinnipiac (21-8, 13-5 Metro Atlantic Athletic): NET No. 167 | KenPom No. 189
  • Little Rock (20-11, 14-4 Ohio Valley): NET No. 188 | KenPom No. 192
  • Eastern Kentucky (17-13, 12-4 ASUN)**: NET No. 205 | KenPom No. 200
  • Central Connecticut State (19-10, 13-2 Northeast)**: NET No. 231 | KenPom No. 253
  • Norfolk State (19-10, 9-3 Mid-Eastern Athletic)**: NET No. 233 | KenPom No. 254
  • Grambling (15-13, 12-3 Southwestern Athletic)**: NET No. 294 | KenPom No. 285